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development analysis of electric power industry and prospect of electric power system reform

2019-08-16 15:12:00 Return list
	
		In 2018, China's electric power industry experienced a series of changes in internal and external situations such as the adjustment of national economic growth rate, the acceleration of electric power reform, and the trade friction between China and the United States.
Rapid development has been achieved in the green transformation of the energy structure, and new breakthroughs have been made in the quantity of market-oriented electricity transactions. Among them, the reform of the electric power system has provided sustained momentum for the high-quality development of China's electric power industry.
On the basis of sorting out the development situation of China's electric power industry in 2018, this paper focuses on analyzing the main problems existing in the development of China's electric power industry, focusing on the future development trend of China's electric power reform and 2019
The expectation of landing is discussed and analyzed.
 
Overall development of China's power industry in 2018
 
In 2018, China's electric power industry showed an overall trend of rapid development, with the overall balance between power supply and demand, the green transformation of power supply structure accelerated, power reform deepened, and international energy cooperation carried out smoothly.
 
First, the overall balance of electricity supply and demand across the country, with high-tech manufacturing and electricity generation making significant contributions to the growth of electricity. According to the 2018 national electric power industry statistics bulletin released by the China electricity federation, last year saw the country's entire society
Electricity consumption was 6.8449 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 8.5 percent year on year, the highest growth rate since 2012. Electricity consumption in the secondary industry was 4.72 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 7.2 percent year on year, the highest growth rate since 2012.
Among them, electricity consumption in high-tech and equipment manufacturing and strategic emerging industries grew by 9.5 percent year on year, leading to new drivers of electricity consumption. The substitution of electric energy (electricity for coal, electricity for oil, etc.) for the growth of electricity consumption
Last year, about 155 billion kilowatt-hours of new electricity was generated by replacing electricity with electricity, which contributed nearly 2.4 percentage points to the growth of electricity consumption.
Second, the speed of cleaning power installations has been accelerated, and the problem of abandoning wind and light has been continuously improved. Last year, China led the world in installed power generation and hydropower, thermal, wind and solar power generation. Full caliber machine
Capacity was 1.90 billion kilowatts, up 6.5% year on year. Of this, the installed generating capacity of non-fossil energy was 770 million kw, accounting for 40.8% of the total installed capacity
Energy generating capacity accounted for 73.0% of the total installed capacity. With the joint efforts of governments at all levels and power enterprises, the problem of wind and light abandoning has been continuously improved. Last year, China's grid-connected solar power generation and wind power generation respectively reached 177.5 billion yuan.
366 billion KWH, an increase of 50.8% and 20.2% respectively. The national average curtailment rate was 7%, down 5 percentage points year on year. The national average abandonment rate was 3%, down 2.8 percentage points year on year.
 
 
Third, the reform of the electric power system has been deepened, and significant progress has been made in the areas of incremental power distribution, spot market and market-based trading of electric power.
 
Last year, the national development and reform commission and the national energy administration identified the third batch of 125 projects for the pilot reform of incremental power distribution business, and the fourth batch is being applied for. Together with the guangdong provincial commission of economy and information technology,
Guangdong provincial development and reform commission jointly announced China's first electric power spot market trading rules, the south (starting with guangdong) and gansu, shanxi electric power spot market began trial operation. We will further improve the trading mechanism and liberalize coal,
Power users in four industries, such as steel, nonferrous metals and building materials, plan to generate electricity, participate in the transaction of full electric quantity, and trade electric quantity in the national electric power market (including power generation right trading electric quantity, excluding the special trade electric quantity such as pumped storage energy trough pumping trading electric quantity)
The total was 2,065.4 billion KWH, up 26.5% year on year. To promote the standardization of electric power trading institutions, the Beijing electric power trading center, guangzhou electric power trading center and all provincial and municipal electric power trading centers will be transformed into stock companies, not power grids
The capital share ratio of enterprises shall be no less than 20%, and the capital share of off-grid enterprises shall be encouraged to account for about 50%. We continued to deepen the reform of electricity transmission and distribution prices, and approved the first regulatory cycle for power grids in north China, northeast China, east China, central China and northwest China
Electricity price level of two-part transmission and distribution system, and transmission price of 24 trans-provincial and trans-regional special transmission projects. This round of reform is under the framework of "three liberalization, one independence and three strengthening".
 
Fourth, the international electric power cooperation continues to flourish, "One Belt And One Road" is still the key area of the internationalization strategy of Chinese electric power enterprises. The energy and power sector is an important position for Chinese enterprises to "go global"
The service "One Belt And One Road" construction as the core of international development, focusing on the main industry to play the advantages, a series of breakthroughs.
 
In 2018, CGN led the nuclear power industry chain to "go global", with overseas assets reaching 120 billion yuan, overseas revenue accounting for more than 20%, and installed capacity of overseas new energy holdings reaching 13.38 million kw. Huadian group continues to accelerate the pace of overseas development,
The revenue of international business reached 7.397 billion yuan and the total profit reached 900 million yuan, up 159% and 331% year on year, respectively. The revenue and profit of international business accounted for 3.4% and 10.9% respectively. State grid has completed a tender offer for Brazil's CPFL new energy,
The direct current transmission project of Ethiopia ~ Kenya and the EPC project of Poland kogeni for power generation and transmission and transformation were completed and put into operation, and the mura direct current transmission project of Pakistan entered into the comprehensive construction stage. The cooperation framework agreement was signed with Portugal national energy grid company.
China southern power grid signed the memorandum of understanding with Laos on the feasibility study of the development and construction of Laos national transmission network, and successfully acquired a 37% stake in edla, an independent power generation company in Malaysia.
Acquired a 27.8% stake in ETC held by Canadian asset manager BIP.
The main problems in the development of China's electric power industry
 
While achieving good results, China's power industry still has the following problems to be solved:
 
First, due to the high purchasing cost of thermal coal and the increasing cost of low-carbon and environmental protection, thermal power enterprises are under great pressure. In 2018, the CECI 5500 kcal composite price range reflecting the procurement cost of thermal coal is 571-635 yuan/ton,
The prices of each period exceeded the upper limit of the green range (normal price) set by the national development and reform commission and other authorities in the circular on the issuance of the memorandum on stabilizing abnormal fluctuations of coal market prices (no. 2808 [2016] of the development and reform operation), and the purchasing cost of domestic coal and electricity enterprises
High. Although in the middle of 2017, the national benchmark electricity price of thermal power was raised by nearly 1 cent/KWH on average, which alleviated the adverse impact of high coal price on coal and power enterprises to some extent, it did not fundamentally reverse the difficult situation of coal and power enterprises.
In 2018, the loss of thermal power enterprises nationwide was still nearly 50%. The environmental protection tax law of the People's Republic of China came into force on January 1, 2018, and local environmental protection taxes can be raised to 1-10 times the national standard. Several provinces have introduced regulations that are stricter than national requirements
Emission standards for air pollutants, some areas to increase the plume control, coal yard closed and other new requirements. The thermal power industry is one of the first industries to implement the emission permit management by the state
Environmental protection transformation, low carbon emissions and environmental management and other multiple pressures.
Second, China's ecological and environmental constraints continue to tighten, the pace of clean adjustment of the power structure needs to be further accelerated. The report to the 19th national congress of the communist party of China (CPC) calls for promoting green development, focusing on solving prominent environmental problems, and accelerating the adjustment of the energy structure.
Increase the supply of clean electricity. In 2019, the National People's Congress (NPC) and the National People's Congress (NPC) again proposed to continue to promote pollution prevention and control, to win the battle of blue skies. According to China's commitment in the Paris agreement, the proportion of non-fossil energy in China's primary energy consumption will reach 15% by 2020.
20 percent by 2030. Low-carbon, environmental protection and clean development have become the hard constraints for the development of China's power industry. On the one hand, in the process of optimizing the power supply structure, it is necessary to continue to give priority to the distribution of clean energy, optimize and adjust the development layout, and follow the centralized development
With decentralized development and nearby absorption principle, overall development and market absorption, orderly development of wind power and photovoltaic. On the other hand, we should speed up the efficient and clean utilization of coal power and strictly control the development scale of coal power according to the requirements of the state on defusing and preventing coal power production risks.
We will vigorously promote clean, low-carbon coal and electricity transformation and upgrading. Third, accelerating the replacement of electric energy is also an important measure to optimize the energy structure.
Research shows that China's large amount of coal burning and crude oil consumption is one of the main causes of haze. China's annual consumption of bulk coal is mainly used in small heating boilers, industrial boilers and some production and living areas in rural areas, which is about 700 million to 800 million tons.
Accounting for 20% of the total coal consumption, compared with the United States and the European Union, there is still a large gap between the level of coal burning.
Third, the development of power grid is facing an increasingly complex external environment, and there are still problems of insufficient and unbalanced development in terms of clean energy consumption and security of large power grid. On the one hand, the resource allocation capacity of the power grid is not suitable for the large-scale and rapid development of clean energy.
At present, China's "three abandon" problem is still relatively prominent, mainly in the northwest and northeast abandoned wind and light, abandoned water in the southwest. However, the lack of trans-regional transmission capacity of the power grid is one of the important reasons that restrict the consumption of clean energy. For example, in the "three north" areas,
The installed capacity of new energy reaches 170 million kw, but the capacity of trans-regional transmission is only 42 million kw. Moreover, it mainly undertakes the task of trans-provincial and trans-regional transmission channels, which severely limits the consumption of clean energy in a wider range. Meanwhile, China's power grid
There is still a large security risk, the need to build a strong smart grid, improve the overall security level of the grid.
Fourth, the reform of electric power and the construction of market gradually entered the deep-water zone of overcoming difficulties, and the reform of electric power system is facing a more complex situation. Specific performance in: first, the specific landing policies of different places lead to the difficulty of multi-party coordination. Various types of pilot projects
In the process of implementation, it is difficult to coordinate among central government departments, between central and local governments, between the government and market entities, and between power enterprises and society, resulting in inconsistent market understanding, irregular market rules and different market access standards.
Second, cross-provincial trade barriers still exist. The market transaction system is not perfect, the variety is not perfect, the information is asymmetrical, restricts the clean energy cross-regional transaction and the consumption scale, and it is difficult to reflect the market's advantage in resource allocation. Third, the market price transmission mechanism
To be established. At present, the upstream to the power industry chain and even the user side of the price is still dominated by planned regulation, so it is necessary to further play the role of market-oriented electricity price. Fourth, the relevant policies, norms and planning to support the incremental power distribution pilot need to be further improved.
A standard management system for incremental distribution business development has not been established. The regional division of distribution stock and increment, investment benefit, grid connection standard, operation mode and other issues need to be issued as soon as possible, and the construction, safety,
Pilot projects to ensure access to industry standards were carried out.
 
 
Analysis on the future development trend of China's electric power system reform
 
The reform of electric power system plays an important role in the development of China's electric power industry. Facing the future, the reform of electric power faces a more complicated situation, which is generally reflected in the following four aspects:
 
First, we continued to deepen reform. General secretary xi jinping issued a call to "continue to push forward reform and opening up in the new era" at the congress celebrating the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up.
To promote high-quality development, the central government attaches great importance to deepening reform, and the reform of the electric power system has entered a stage of comprehensive acceleration, deepening and effective implementation.
Second, the marketization level of the whole industry will be further improved. The goal of this round of electric power reform is to control the monopolistic link and liberalize the competitive link, and the overall direction of the reform is to be more market-oriented. The construction process of the power market was accelerated, and the country required the first half of 2019
Spot market pilot province has the conditions for trial operation, trading institutions to carry out shareholding reform, the market subject to trading institutions to a higher degree of independence. In order to further reduce the electricity costs of enterprises, government departments at all levels will continue to expand the scale of direct transactions and marketization
The proportion of electricity will be further increased.
Third, the reform features strong supervision. The supervision mode of electricity transmission and distribution price has been preliminarily established. With the gradual establishment and improvement of the electricity market, a supervision system adapting to the operation requirements of the electricity market will be gradually established. In the future, with the further deepening of marketization,
The industry will not only accept strict regulation from the government, but also be subject to social supervision.
Fourth, information will be more open and transparent. With the deepening of the market-oriented reform, information will have a more significant impact on the interests of market subjects, and higher requirements are put forward for information disclosure. We will carry out pilot projects for spot electricity supply and supervise the price of electricity transmission and distribution
The requirement of information disclosure is further improved, and the power enterprises are required to release information and make information more transparent.
 
China's power system reform is expected to be implemented in 2019
 
Under the increasingly urgent reform situation, various electricity reform tasks in 2019 are expected to be further accelerated, and gradually enter the implementation stage.
In terms of the construction of electric power market, the construction process of electric power market will be accelerated in 2019. The first batch of pilot units will start trial operation in the first half of 2019. All the remaining provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities will submit the construction plan and schedule of spot electric power market in the first half of 2019.
The spot market is being piloted across the board. It is expected that the scale of market-oriented transactions will be further expanded, and a full market system covering medium - and long-term transactions, spot transactions and ancillary services will gradually be formed. Under the market environment, the spot market operation is directly related
To the benefit of market players, regulators will more closely monitor how open and transparent spot market operations are.
 
In terms of incremental power distribution liberalization, the state has taken incremental power distribution reform as an important measure to stabilize growth and investment, and continuously strengthened reform efforts. So far, 320 pilot projects have been approved in three batches and the fourth
The declaration has been started. China is vigorously promoting the trial of incremental power distribution, and has released a number of policy documents to promote its development since the beginning of this year. We look forward to scientific progress this year.
 
In terms of the electricity price reform, considering that the government and the society still have a strong expectation of price reduction, greater efforts will be made to promote the development of private enterprises in 2019. In addition, the power transmission and distribution price verification method and cost supervision and examination will be stricter, it is expected that the electricity price may continue to decline.
According to the government work report, we will use reform to reduce fees levied on enterprises, clean up surcharges for electricity prices, reduce the cost of electricity for manufacturing industries, and cut the average electricity price for industry and commerce by another 10 percent. Coupled with the economic downturn and greater efforts to promote the development of private enterprises,
It is possible to introduce policies to reduce the energy cost of enterprises again, and the possibility of policy reduction in the electricity price level is greater.
 
In terms of the liberalization of the power generation plan, in 2019, the government departments concerned are also increasingly demanding the acceleration of the liberalization of the power generation plan. It is expected that the liberalization of the power generation plan will become an important means to stabilize growth
We plan to liberalize policy formulation. Further progress will be made in the liberalization of power generation plans in four industries in 2019, and power generation plans in operating industries will also be liberalized step by step.
 
Spot market construction has become the focus of electric power market reform, which provides a new space for further liberalization of power generation plan.
 
In terms of the liberalization of the power selling side, the reform of the power selling side is the "entry point" for the power industry to liberalize the access to private capital, expand the development space of private capital and stimulate the vitality of private capital. The current domestic and international economic situation is complex, domestic
International trade frictions are frequent. National and local governments have an urgent and obvious need to reduce the electricity costs of enterprises. In this context, we will deepen the reform of the electricity side, relax the access conditions for direct trading,
Expanding the scale of direct transactions and increasing the access of electricity sellers and power users are likely to be key directions in 2019.
 
From the perspective of electricity sales competition, the market share may be further concentrated to the electricity sales companies with power generation background, and the pressure of private electricity sales companies will be further increased.
 
2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. The power industry needs to fully implement the spirit of the 19th national congress of the communist party of China, the central economic work conference and the two sessions of the National People's Congress, start with the reform of the power system, and focus on promoting the quality reform of power development.
We will transform the power industry into a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient one, and better meet the people's diversified and multi-level demand for high-quality electricity.
 
 
This article is published in China power enterprise management, issue 07, 2019. The author is deputy chief engineer of state grid energy research institute co., LTD.
 
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Original title: development analysis of electric power industry and prospect of electric power system reform
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